Outlook for the Protein Category in the Food Industry

The food industry operates within a landscape influenced by many factors such as economic trends, global uncertainty, shifting consumer values, technological advancements etc. The end of 2023 saw a positive shift in supply, availability, and economic conditions, offering more stability and marked improvement for procurement and sourcing.  As we move through 2024, the market appears set for continued stabilisation.

Bringing a focus onto proteins, we reached out to Foodbuy’s seasoned Category Managers to get their perspective on the short and medium term impacts to this segment and its implications for your business.

Center of Plate Proteins: What you need to know

Overall, supply is expected to remain strong across the Poultry and Pork categories as we advance further into Q1 and Q2, 2024.  Be prepared for higher prices this year in the Beef category with forecasts significantly above the 2023 markets.

• Chicken
  • Supply in Canada is expected to be strong in the first and second quarter of 2024 with a good supply for 2024
  • Live bird costing is likely to level off in the second half of the year
  • While there are currently low levels of Avian Influenza across the country, outbreaks will still be a concern over the winter months.  New outbreaks in BC and Quebec are being watched carefully.

• Beef
  • Drought in the U.S. and Canadian Midwest has resulted in the increased cost of cattle feed, driving up beef costs globally
  • Cattle supplies are worsening year over year and inventory is at an all-time low
  • Currently prices are at a historical high and will continue to climb throughout 2024.
  • Expect Beef prices will rise as we move into the summer BBQ season and demand for beef rises
  • Watch for grinds to reach new price highs in 2024 with supply concerns and customers trading down on their beef purchases from more expensive cuts to beef burgers.

• Pork
  • Demand for pork is weakening domestically and the market is witnessing an excess of raw material in Canada
  • Over supply domestically should continue Q2 through Q3.
  • Look for momentum changes in the last quarter of 2024 as frozen stocks dwindle.
  • We are expecting pork belly pricing to be lower in 2024 vs 2023
  • Value cuts of pork will include butt, hams and tenderloins

•  Turkey
  • 2024 should see improvement in the supply of turkeys
  • It is anticipated that there will be larger birds available in Q1 and Q2
  • The cost of Turkey is likely to stabilise Q1 through Q3
  • Overall, turkey supply will be stable this year although we may see some variation in supply as we approach the Q4 Winter season
  • The industry is keeping an eye on threats posed from Avian Influenza across Canada.

Foodbuy is committed to helping Members make the most informed purchasing decisions. Connect with your Foodbuy account manager today for recommendations that align with your business objectives and optimise your purchasing.